According to a government bill, starting from September 1, 2025, the requirement to build shelters will apply not only to larger public buildings but also to apartment buildings, significantly increasing the cost of new developments in Estonia.

Igor Habal, a board member of Estonia’s largest real estate agency Uus Maa, explained that while the new law is expected to take effect in the fall, it is still at the draft stage with many uncertainties. “The bill is largely based on Finland’s example, where this has been in practice for decades. In Estonia, the shelter requirement would mostly impact new developments with over 1200 square meters of above-ground closed gross floor area. Essentially, this means developments with 15-20 apartments, which make up the majority,” said Habal.

“The major question is what the exact requirements will be and the additional construction costs. While this is an important decision, the actual costs will be significantly higher than the state’s estimates. According to the Ministry of the Interior’s forecast, construction costs could rise by 2-3%. If shelters are built underground, it would not just mean digging a hole, but also setting up various technical systems, such as heating, generators, and storage for food and water,” Habal noted.

“Based on current experience, adding just one underground floor increases construction costs by 5-10%, and for taller buildings, it could mean several floors. The construction cost will definitely rise by a double-digit percentage, not just two percent,” he added.

“Theoretically, shelters could also be built above ground, but this would take up part of the plot, raising questions about whether municipalities would ease parking and landscaping requirements,” Habal continued.

“The shelter requirement will undoubtedly affect the prices of new homes. Developers probably won’t be able to fully pass these costs on to buyers, as their homes would no longer be competitive compared to older ones. In theory, the shelter could be a selling point, for which buyers might be willing to pay a little more,” Habal said.

“Currently, there are no exact specifications for what the shelters should be like—everything from wall thickness to the associated technical systems. These new requirements will also apply to the renovation of old apartment buildings. However, it’s clear that it will not be feasible to dig shelters under panel buildings in areas like Mustamäe or Lasnamäe. As a result, the majority of Tallinn’s population would still be left unprotected,” Habal concluded.

“While prioritizing greater safety is a correct direction for the government, the public sector itself should set an example by building shelters that cover entire areas around government-owned buildings. Adding this obligation solely for new developments will not come close to meeting the population’s needs and would take several generations to implement,” Habal added.