Between August 2025 and mid-December, our commercial real estate agent Andi Möller was in daily direct contact with Estonian business owners, mapping their expectations, plans and commercial real estate needs. This was not a theoretical survey but hands-on market work.
During this period, nearly 2000 targeted direct offers were sent via email and more than 1000 substantive phone conversations were held with entrepreneurs. This volume provides a reliable and diverse snapshot of current market conditions. Importantly, over one hundred companies already had a concrete commercial real estate requirement or plan rather than merely a general interest.
The discussions covered a wide range of sectors including services, healthcare, legal services, veterinary practices, manufacturing, investment and development. This confirms that current market shifts are not confined to isolated industries but reflect a broad-based adjustment to a new economic reality.
Cautious Optimism, Not a Waiting Mode
The prevailing sentiment among entrepreneurs regarding 2026 is cautiously optimistic. Growth is no longer viewed as an end in itself but as a means to achieve stability. In commercial real estate this translates into very clear expectations: demand is focused on premises with lower and more predictable operating costs, a sensible balance between price and location, and space solutions that support business operations rather than generate additional expenses. Representativeness has moved into the background while functionality and efficiency have become decisive.
Larger Companies Move, Smaller Ones Optimize
Two distinct behavioral patterns are evident. Financially stronger and larger companies are already discussing expansion and the need for larger premises. Smaller businesses by contrast are concentrating on cost optimization, reviewing lease agreements and securing their core operations.
Crucially caution does not mean a lack of ambition. Many entrepreneurs describe concrete business ideas and development plans, the implementation of which depends on further stabilization of the economic environment. Trust and predictability are the key factors that enable longer-term real estate decisions.
Tax Reform and Signals from the Real Economy
The abolition of the income tax kink which took effect in 2026 is seen as having the potential to increase consumer confidence and channel more capital into the economy. Its impact is expected to be particularly visible in the service sector including healthcare and medical services where decisions postponed during uncertain times tend to resume first.
At the same time early signs of recovery are already visible in the real economy. In particular several companies in the metal and wood processing industries now have order books planned several months ahead indicating a return of demand and confidence.
Conclusion: Real Estate Does Not Drive the Business, but the Wrong Space Can Hold It Back
2026 is unlikely to be a year of rapid growth but rather a period of more balanced and deliberate progress. Compared to previous years the most significant change is that entrepreneurs are no longer in a waiting mode. Decisions are being made albeit carefully.
Commercial real estate is no longer viewed merely as a cost item or a status symbol but as a management decision. The wrong premises, the wrong location or an inappropriate cost structure can hinder even an otherwise well-functioning business. Conversely a well-chosen solution can provide a competitive advantage precisely at a time when the market is still stabilizing.
In this phase of the market success does not belong to those who react the fastest but to those who can read the signals, separate noise from substance and make decisions at the right moment. This is where the value of a partner becomes decisive: whether they simply transact space or help a company make a well-considered strategic decision.
